Why do people believe nonsense like astrology? There are many reasons for this, of course. But when we ask believers, we get a straightforward answer: “It describes me completely correctly.”
That's a good reason, of course. If what your astrologer, fortune teller, or any other cool character analyzer says fits you well, why not believe it? So let's take a closer look at this thing called perfect description.
COMMON TEXT FORER SENT TO EVERYONE
Psychologist Bertram Forer (1914-2000) published a study in 1949. First, he administered a personality test questionnaire to the students who took his course. A week later, he gave each participant an assessment with his name on it, which he requested to be kept confidential. But he had sent the same text to everyone, regardless of their survey response:
Bertram R. Forer (24 October 1914 – 6 April 2000) was an American psychologist best known for describing the Forer effect, sometimes referred to as subjective validation. Born in Springfield, Massachusetts, Forer graduated from University of Massachusetts Amherst in 1936. He received his M.A. and Ph.D. in clinical psychology from University of California, Los Angeles.
“You need other people to like you, but you don't hesitate to criticize yourself. Even if there are some weaknesses in your personality, you can make up for them. You have an important potential that you have not used yet. Although you seem disciplined and controlled on the outside, you are anxious inside and you cannot be sure of yourself. Occasionally, you have serious doubts about whether your decisions were correct. You like a certain amount of change and variety, and you get discouraged when you encounter obstacles. You take pride in your ability to think independently, you do not believe the claims of others without sufficient evidence. Still, you've found that it's not good to be too outspoken in explaining your ideas. Sometimes you can be extroverted and sociable, but other times you can be introverted, shy, and reserved. You may be tempted by unrealistic things.
The pursuit of safety plays an important role in your life.”
Forer then asked participants to rate how accurately this assessment described them, on a scale of 0 (not at all) to 5 (excellent). The average result was 4.26. That is, the participants thought that a completely non-personalized assessment described them perfectly.
ROUND SENTENCES FROM ASTROLOGY JOURNAL
Forer got these sentences from an astrology journal. If you look at the sentences in general, you see that they are especially vague, round sentences that can suit everyone. These are called "Barnum profiles", after the 19th-century American entertainer who became famous for such "prophecies". This fallacy called the Forer Effect (or Barnum Effect) is one of the reasons why astrology, fortune telling, prophecy, graphology, and more character-reading quackery seem right to people.
The Barnum effect, also called the Forer effect or, less commonly, the Barnum–Forer effect, is a common psychological phenomenon whereby individuals give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically to them, yet which are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. This effect can provide a partial explanation for the widespread acceptance of some paranormal beliefs and practices, such as astrology, fortune telling, aura reading, and some types of personality tests.
Similar psychology experiments were repeated many times in the following years. In 1985, D H Dickson and I W Kelly compiled these studies. The available data showed some consistent behavior. First, respondents said that these fake profiles presented to them were highly “near-perfect.” The fact that the profile was said to be “customized” increased credibility. Likeable expressions in the profile were more easily accepted, unless the unpleasant expressions came from someone seen in higher status.
COGNITIVE ERRORS, CALLED CONFIRMATION ERRORS
Our cognitive error called the "confirmation fallacy" also has a finger here. In general, if we see a statement that we agree with at the beginning, this leads to a bias in our perception of agreement and causes us to accept the following statements as true (to try to confirm rather than refute). Just as we tend to believe a statement from someone we love more easily than if it comes from someone we don't like.
While looking at how much the profile given to us costs, we also need to consider how distinctive it is. The fallibility of the Forer/Barnum effect comes from neglecting it. For example, the phrase “on the bus you sometimes hold on with your right hand and sometimes with your left hand” fits everyone, but is not distinctive. So are the Barnum profiles: the mentally healthy person is not completely extroverted or completely antisocial; Behavior may change depending on the day. Therefore, the expression “sometimes extroverted and social, sometimes introverted” is not distinctive.
Fortune tellers exaggerate themselves a lot and give round words
Of course, when subjects are asked explicitly, they can easily say that Barnum's expressions are not distinctive. However, how much we do this questioning when we listen to a fortune teller is questionable. We are often deceived not because we are stupid or unable to think, but because we involuntarily indulge in automatic behavior.
In summary, if you want to look like a master fortune-teller, first exaggerate yourself so that the illusion of confirmation comes into play; present yourself as a high-status authority; say round words that will suit everyone; Use the words “sometimes” and “maybe” a lot.
Even if you don't want to be deceived by scammers, always look the other way. “How well does that fit me?” next to the question “How much does it separate me from others?” Ask it too. When you break the confirmation error, you will enjoy seeing that these expressions are gilded.